Sun Q&A
David Nitkin on state politics issues
Maryland political editor answers selected readers' questions
January 2, 2006
Rodney, Baltimore: If Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley or Montgomery County
Executive Douglas M. Duncan were to be elected, would they place a
moratorium on the death penalty?
Nitkin: Former Gov. Parris N. Glendening put a halt to executions in
Maryland, saying he wanted to see the results of a study by a University of
Maryland professor of whether the death penalty was fairly applied in
Maryland, and the role that race and geography played in applying the death
penalty.
The study came out in 2003, when Gov. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. was
governor. While Ehrlich asked Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele to review the
study, Steele has not produced the results of the review, and Ehrlich
resumed executions.
The study author, Ray Paternoster, recently wrote about his study in
an opinion piece in The Sun.
He wrote, in part: "We looked at the four key moments in each case in
which the prosecutor, judge or jury could decide whether to impose a death
sentence -- from the first filing of charges to final sentencing. We studied
the details of each case, more than 100 factors in all. These factors
captured the brutality of the crimes -- the aggravating or mitigating
circumstances that juries ultimately consider at sentencing time. Then we
used statistics to account for and control all of these many differences
among the cases.
"After taking all these other factors into account, we found evidence
that race mattered. We found even stronger evidence that the particular
jurisdiction where the crime occurred mattered.
"Yet, as the [Wesley] Baker execution approached, some newspapers and
advocates described the study as finding just the opposite -- that the
Maryland death penalty process was race-neutral or that race of the
offender made no difference. Some other advocates on the other side of the
debate claimed that the study found the process to be racist. All of those
descriptions are incorrect.
"We found that both the race of the victim and, to a lesser extent,
the race of the offender, make a difference: Those who killed a white victim
in Maryland were between two and three times more likely to be sentenced to
death than those who killed a non-white.
"Black offenders who killed white victims were nearly 2 ½ times more
likely to be sentenced to death than white offenders who killed white
victims and nearly 3 ½ times more likely to be sentenced to death than
black offenders who killed black victims."
I asked both the Duncan and O'Malley campaigns your question, and here
are their responses.
Jody Couser, a press secretary for Duncan, said the Montgomery County
executive would reimpose a moratorium until the issues raised in the
Paternoster study were addressed.
Duncan "supports the death penalty in certain cases," Couser said, but
believes "the study has raised real and genuine concerns about its
application."
The O'Malley campaign would not directly answer whether the mayor
would reimpose a moratorium.
Campaign manager Jonathan Epstein gave me this statement: "Martin
believes that further investigation into the fairness of Maryland's death
penalty is warranted and looks forward to the conclusions of Lt. Gov.
Steele's long-anticipated report on this issue. No person is above the law,
and while the mayor remains personally opposed to the death penalty he will
uphold its fair and legal application as governor."
Andrew, Gaithersburg: In the past two weeks, and in the next two weeks, Doug
Duncan has been campagning in his own county. That is one entire month
dedicated to a part of Maryland that should already be heavily supportive
of him. Is this poor campaign management? Or is it due to O'Malley's rising
support in Montgomery County?
Nitkin: Montgomery County is the largest in Maryland, and it is
heavily Democratic, so it makes sense for any Democratic candidate to spend
a lot of time there.
That said, the road to victory in 2006 for Democrats in the
gubernatorial and U.S. Senate primary lies in Prince George's County,
which has more Democratic voters than anyplace else (as of last March -- a
date that happens to be in front of me -- there were 318,897 registered
Democrats in Prince George's and 278,375 in Montgomery). So time not spent
in Prince George's is time wasted, in a sense.
O'Malley's campaign would like to paint the picture that they've got
Duncan on the ropes, and are forcing him to shore up support in his home
territory.
But Duncan's staff said that the events he is now doing in Montgomery
are a direct result of endorsements he received from local elected
officials. When those officials asked, "What can we do to help?" Duncan said
he wanted access to their volunteers and organization. The events you
reference, the campaign says, are meet-and-greet sessions designed to help
Duncan get volunteers.
Eric, Rockville: What will happen to Doug Duncan if he loses the primary? He
won't be able to go back to being county executive. Will he just become an
ex-office holder turned lobbyist?
Nitkin: I don't see Doug Duncan as a lobbyist if he loses the primary.
There are other private- and public-sector jobs he might be interested in,
including working with business or trade groups. Perhaps if he lost and
O'Malley became governor, there would be a position for him in state
government. Of course, Duncan would acknowledge none of this. He, and all
candidates, are trained to say the only job they are interested in is the
one they are running for, and that they are going to win.
Mark, Annapolis: You answered a recent question about slots indicating that
Michael Busch was opposed to the state giving millions to profit wealthy track
owners. Just how much money would go to them as a result of Ehrlich's plan?
Nitkin: The answer to this question varies wildly, depending on
whether you ask the tracks or slots opponents. Track owners have a tendency
to understate the figure -- they say they won't get much because they have
to spend so much money on building slots facilities and other expenses.
But I like the analysis done by Jeffrey Hooke, an independent
investment banker who has done a lot of research on his own into the value
of slots licenses. Here's how he summarizes the value of subsidies:
"The subsidies are a moving target, depending on the number of
racetracks getting slots, number of nontracks getting slots, slots per
location, assumed slots revenue per year, and the gaming tax rate and other
taxes.
"Let's use the 2003 Maryland Taxpayer Education Fund analysis,
published on the MTEF Web site as the likely scenario, OK?
"Five tracks generating $1.9 billion of total slots revenue, with a
total tax rate of 61%, meaning the tracks keep 39%.
"Look at it two ways:
"1. The estimated cash auction value of the five licenses was $1.5
billion in 2003. This number has been validated by subsequent license sales
in Pennsylvania, and it is probably low in hindsight. So, the "present
value" of the subsidy over 15 years is at least $1.5 billion.
"By forfeiting the $1.5 billion over 15 years, the subsidy is $100
million per year, plus the interest that the state could earn on the cash.
Assume 6% per year, or $90 million extra per year. The total is $190
million per year.
"2. Alternatively, you could look at the tax rate, and determine
whether it is artificially low. The tracks keep 39%, although our analysis
suggested they could make a good profit at 24%. The 15% per year is the
"subsidy."
"15% times $1.9 billion per year is $290 million per year. That is the
subsidy under this kind of methodology.
"Clearly, the amount of subsidy for an industry, which, according to a
University of Md. study, accounts for at most 9,000 jobs, is quite
extraordinary."
She Robinson, Baltimore: Do the "leaders" in Maryland and in Baltimore realize that the Maryland High School Assessments are going to leave children behind?
Nitkin: While educators and parents often raise concerns that the
emphasis on testing in both Maryland and in the federal "No Child Left
Behind" law has negative results such as "teaching to the test" and
quashing creativity in both teaching and classroom performance, there are
no serious discussions to do away with such testing.
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